Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for his third consecutive term on June 9, 2024. Despite BJP’s campaign optimism promising over 400 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the party fell short of a majority, prompting Rahul Gandhi to confidently claim the Modi government’s days were numbered. Critics pointed to BJP’s reliance on fickle allies such as TDP’s N Chandrababu Naidu and JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, alongside disappointing results in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, to predict political instability.
However, as Modi’s government completes its first year of the third term and eleventh overall, the prime minister projects steady confidence, with both allies proving to be dependable supporters rather than unreliable crutches, contrary to opposition expectations. Meanwhile, the BJP recalibrated its political strategy, winning significant assembly elections and regaining momentum lost in the general elections.
BJP reversed its fortunes in Haryana and Maharashtra by leveraging welfare initiatives and regional leadership, and notably captured Delhi after 26 years, defeating Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party on their home ground. In contrast, the opposition, particularly Congress, failed to capitalize on BJP’s earlier setbacks, remaining fragmented and struggling to register major victories.
West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee-led TMC and Arvind Kejriwal have distanced themselves from Congress, while other opposition allies face uncertain futures. Political analysts, like Delhi University’s Manoj Kumar, emphasize Modi’s unchallenged dominance, attributing his reinforced image to decisive military actions like Operation Sindoor, which bolstered his reputation as a leader committed to national interests.
Despite setbacks linked to caste census debates and regional issues, the BJP successfully co-opted these politically sensitive topics, strengthening its electoral appeal. Modi’s welfare-driven approach, branded ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas,’ continues to resonate with voters, supported by his personal charisma and broad public trust comparable to past leaders such as Nehru and Vajpayee.
Even with a reduced majority, the government confidently pushed through contentious legislation, including the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, aided by coalition partners like TDP, JD(U), and Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV). Efforts toward implementing “One Nation One Election” bills are underway, despite lacking the supermajority for constitutional changes.
As BJP consolidates gains in opposition strongholds, the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, and Bihar will be critical in testing whether Modi’s party can continue its political ascendancy and surprise its rivals once again.
