India’s economic growth for the financial year 2025–26 is expected to be in the range of 6.4% to 6.7%, accordingto the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). CII’s newly appointed President, Rajiv Memani, shared this outlook during his inaugural press briefing, noting that a mix of monetary easing and strong domestic demand will act as primary growth engines over the next fiscal.
Memani highlighted several tailwinds contributing to the forecast. A favorable monsoon prediction and a recent injection of liquidity into the financial system by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are seen as key enablers. Specifically, the RBI’s decision to reduce the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points has infused around $29.24 billion into the banking sector. This step is designed to encourage credit flow to core productive areas of the economy.
Additionally, the RBI’s move to lower the benchmark policy repo rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.5%, is expected to make borrowing more accessible. These monetary actions are intended to stimulate investment and consumer spending, which together form a large part of India’s economic engine.
When asked about the broader economic outlook, Memani acknowledged existing external challenges such as uncertain global trade dynamics and rising geopolitical tensions. However, he was optimistic that the strong internal consumption trends in India would help cushion the impact of these risks.
He remarked that while external headwinds may exert downward pressure, internal resilience and robust demand create significant upside opportunities. According to the CII, these opposing forces are currently balanced, allowing for a stable and realistic growth path going forward.
In summary, the CII remains confident in India’s economic trajectory for FY26, driven by healthy domestic activity and recent policy support, even as the global environment remains unpredictable. The industry body sees these factors positioning India for moderate yet stable growth in the coming year.
