India’s basmati rice exports are expected to remain stable in FY26 and FY27 despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to a report by Crisil Ratings.
The report estimates export volumes could grow by up to 2 per cent from last year’s 6.06 million tonnes, supported by stronger demand from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
While exports to Iran — which accounted for about 14 per cent of India’s basmati shipments last year — may decline due to logistical disruptions, increased demand from other Middle Eastern markets is expected to offset the impact.
Crisil noted that the Middle East and West Asia together account for around 70–72 per cent of India’s basmati rice exports, making the region a crucial market.
If supply chain disruptions continue for about a month, export volumes could decline by roughly 3.5–3.7 lakh tonnes. However, exporters are expected to maintain profitability by passing higher freight and insurance costs on to buyers.
Indian exporters are also exploring alternative shipping routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady supply to key markets, although this could increase transit times and working capital requirements.
India remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of basmati rice, accounting for nearly 85 per cent of global basmati trade.
