India is poised to maintain its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy in fiscal year 2025, even though global institutions have slightly reduced their expectations. Growth projections for FY26 have been trimmed to a range between 6.2% and 6.7%, reflecting a downturn of up to 0.5% due to international uncertainties, including the ongoing tariff disputes and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy.
Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have scaled back their estimates, now predicting India’s GDP will expand by 6.2% and 6.3%, respectively—lower than their earlier outlooks of 6.5% and 6.7%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India maintains its growth forecast at 6.5% for the ongoing fiscal year.
Other prominent organizations echo this cautious sentiment. Fitch Ratings and the OECD have revised their forecasts to 6.4%, while S&P Global Ratings aligns with the RBI at 6.5%. Moody’s Analytics presents the most conservative figure, anticipating a 6.1% expansion in calendar year 2025.
For FY24, India’s economy is believed to have grown by 6.5%. Even with potential recessionary pressure on the US and slowing momentum in China, India is expected to outpace its peers. The Asian Development Bank also readjusted its estimate for FY25 growth from 7% down to 6.7%.
Despite these promising numbers, there are some domestic headwinds. One of the key concerns is low consumer sentiment, which could weaken domestic demand. If these conditions persist and trade-related tensions worsen, India’s growth could potentially slide to around 4% or lower.
Still, in a turbulent global economic landscape, India’s economic resilience continues to stand out.
