India’s economic growth outlook is expected to remain robust as the country prepares to roll out a new series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates based on the 2022–23 base year, a move aimed at better capturing the evolving structure of the economy.
A sub-committee constituted by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has recommended expanded and more systematic use of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data as part of the revised national accounts framework. The recommendations form a key component of the broader exercise to modernise India’s GDP measurement system.
India is transitioning its GDP base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23, alongside an updated Consumer Price Index base of 2024. The revisions are designed to reflect structural shifts such as the rapid expansion of digital commerce, formalisation of businesses, growth of services, and changes in consumption patterns.
Under the earlier 2011–12 series, GST data was primarily used for compiling quarterly national accounts and select segments of annual estimates. The updated methodology will significantly deepen the integration of GST records, offering a more granular view of economic activity across sectors, particularly within the informal and semi-formal economy.
The new GDP framework will also incorporate additional high-frequency and administrative datasets, including vehicle registration data, natural gas consumption statistics and other sector-specific indicators. Officials believe this enhanced data architecture will improve accuracy, reduce estimation gaps and strengthen India’s global economic comparability.
According to advance projections, India’s GDP growth is estimated at 7.4 per cent in FY26, with domestic demand continuing to serve as the primary growth driver. Research assessments from State Bank of India suggest that growth in the third quarter of FY26 could range between 8 and 8.1 per cent, supported by resilient consumption and investment trends despite global economic headwinds.
High-frequency indicators point to sustained momentum in economic activity during the October–December quarter, reflecting stable demand conditions and improved formal sector participation.
Separately, estimates from Union Bank of India indicate that GDP growth in the third quarter may remain elevated at around 8.3 per cent, even accounting for an adverse base effect.
Economists note that the revised GDP series, combined with improved data coverage, could reinforce India’s position among the world’s largest economies by providing a clearer representation of its expanding economic scale and complexity.
The updated national accounts, including revised annual and quarterly GDP estimates for recent financial years under the 2022–23 base, are expected to offer policymakers, investors and global institutions a more precise view of India’s growth trajectory and economic fundamentals.
