For months, the notion that Joe Biden, at 81 years old, might not be the Democratic nominee has lingered on the periphery of American political discourse. Initially, this idea was championed by Republican candidates at rallies and on podcasts, serving both as a warning against re-electing an aging former president and as a critique of the Democratic Party’s supposed internal manipulations.
Now, as this scenario seems increasingly plausible, its early proponents are keen to highlight their foresight. Vivek Ramaswamy, who consistently suggested on the campaign trail that he would face a different Democrat in November, told Semafor that his predictions are now being taken seriously. He noted that many Republicans dismissed this possibility when he first raised it, and even more so the Democrats, who relegated it to the realm of fringe conspiracy theories.
Ramaswamy wasn’t alone in this speculation. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also suggested that the Democrats might replace Biden with someone else. He even engaged in a debate with California Governor Gavin Newsom on this very premise. DeSantis remarked that the media, who previously supported Biden despite his evident flaws, are now starting to acknowledge the issues.
Nikki Haley, the only Trump challenger to win a state in the primary, frequently asserted that Biden would be unable to complete his term, predicting that the next president would be a woman—either herself or Vice President Kamala Harris. She told the Wall Street Journal that the Democrats would likely choose someone younger and more dynamic.
Despite these speculations, Biden’s closest advisors have urged him to remain in the race, arguing that stepping down would create significant challenges for the party. However, the 90-minute debate on Thursday shifted what was once a fringe Republican theory into a more mainstream Democratic concern. Previously dismissed by the elites, questions about Biden’s viability are now being seriously considered, a change that may have been exacerbated by the initial dismissiveness.
Republican voters have long been skeptical about Biden’s nomination, often attributing their doubts to media biases. When asked a year ago, many Iowa caucus-goers expressed disbelief that Biden would be the Democratic nominee. Republican predictions that Biden wouldn’t survive another election cycle have been consistent, with figures like Senator Joni Ernst emphasizing the need for a candidate with mental and physical toughness.
Conservatives have increasingly felt betrayed by a media-political elite they believe protects its own. They cite various grievances, from the handling of COVID-19 to legal actions against Trump, as evidence of systemic dishonesty. Biden’s recent debate performance has only reinforced their belief that the elites have been concealing his decline.
While not all theories about Biden have proven true, such as those about him using performance-enhancing drugs, the valid concerns about his age have gained prominence. Some theories, like Valerie Jarrett secretly running the country or Michelle Obama becoming the nominee, remain baseless.
The White House press corps has faced criticism for its handling of questions about Biden’s age, a story often overlooked. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign, though not seriously entertaining the theory that Biden won’t be the nominee, is content to let the speculation unfold, reminding supporters that the Democrats have already made their choice.
