Psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav is the latest poll analyst, following American expert Ian Bremmer and political scientist Prashant Kishor, to forecast a victory for the BJP in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.
Yadav, however, anticipates that the BJP will not be able to replicate its 2019 success when it won 303 seats. He predicts the party will secure around 240-260 seats, with their NDA allies winning approximately 35-45 seats.
Yadav also expects the Congress party to improve its performance, increasing its tally from 52 seats in 2019 to somewhere between 85 and 100 seats.
In a tweet, Yadav dismissed the BJP’s claim of potentially winning over 400 seats, stating, “forget 400 or 303, BJP will not cross 272. If the wind blows more strongly, it is possible that even NDA may not get majority.” He has reiterated in several interviews that the BJP might not reach the 272-seat majority mark this time.
Prashant Kishor has endorsed Yadav’s analysis, acknowledging Yadav as a “trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country.” Kishor noted that according to Yadav, the BJP might win 240-260 seats, and with the NDA allies securing 35-45 seats, the total would be 275-305 seats. Kishor added that 272 seats are required to form a government, and the BJP/NDA currently holds 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha, with the Shiv Sena’s 18 seats no longer part of the NDA.
Kishor, in a tweet, suggested that people judge for themselves which party will form the government and noted that the results will be clear on June 4. However, it should be noted that both Yadav and Kishor have not provided detailed data to support their predictions.
In a recent NDTV interview, Kishor highlighted that two factors necessary to unseat a government—widespread voter anger or a strong demand for a new government—are not evident, suggesting that the BJP is likely to remain in power.
American political scientist Ian Bremmer has similarly forecasted that the BJP will secure 305±10 seats. Bremmer told NDTV that there would be minimal change from the previous election, attributing the expected victory to India’s strong economic performance and consistent reforms under Modi, which he described as a stabilizing factor.
