The United Nations (UN) has projected India’s GDP growth at a robust 6.6 per cent in 2026, even as global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.7 per cent amid rising geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty, according to a new UN report released on Wednesday.
The projection is part of the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, which notes that strong demand in major markets could partially offset the impact of higher US tariffs on India’s economy.
Although the UN has lowered India’s growth estimate from its earlier projection of 7.4 per cent, the outlook aligns with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects India to remain the only major economy posting growth above 6 per cent in 2025–26.
The report warns that the global economy faces the risk of entering a prolonged phase of slower growth compared to the pre-pandemic period. Current growth levels, it says, are insufficient to deliver broad-based development gains, leaving many countries and communities behind.
Geopolitical tensions, continued policy uncertainty, and fiscal challenges continue to cloud the global economic outlook. While a sharp rise in US tariffs in 2025 unsettled global trade, the world economy showed greater resilience than expected.
For 2026, global growth is expected to moderate further, as weakening international trade is only partially offset by supportive monetary easing across economies.
The UN also highlighted that while inflation has eased in many countries, rising living costs continue to strain household budgets and worsen inequality. Risks of renewed supply disruptions remain elevated due to conflicts, climate-related disasters, trade fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, India’s real GDP growth has been projected at 7.4 per cent in FY 2025–26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY 2024–25, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics.
Official data show that India’s economic growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter (July–September) of the current financial year, compared to 5.6 per cent in the same quarter last year.
Despite global headwinds such as higher US tariffs and slowing trade, India continues to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The IMF also forecasts India as the only economy expected to achieve over 6 per cent growth in 2025–26 amid disruptions to global trade.
