As the 2024 US Presidential Elections approach, the potential for a significant impact on India-US relations is clear. The election, set for November 5, will determine whether Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, or Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, will lead the United States. With a growing focus on foreign relations, especially concerning India, the results could influence multiple sectors.
During his campaign, Trump indicated a desire to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his recent visit to the US. However, Modi opted not to meet either candidate, likely to avoid political engagements amid the election season. The historical context of their relationship shows that past meetings, such as Modi’s 2019 visit to Texas, have been well-attended and indicative of strong bilateral ties.
Under the Biden administration, US-India relations have flourished, characterized by enhanced cooperation in various sectors, including defense, trade, and climate initiatives. The Biden administration prioritized a robust partnership, emphasizing shared democratic values and regional stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Collaborative efforts such as the Quad initiatives have strengthened military and strategic ties, leading to increased defense sales and intelligence sharing.
The upcoming election could significantly affect five critical areas:
- Bilateral Ties: The result will directly influence defense and trade relations between India and the US.
- Economic Impact: The countries traded approximately $118 billion in goods and services in the last fiscal year, a vital aspect of their relationship.
- Geopolitics: The US’s approach to China and Russia could impact India’s strategic decisions, especially if a tougher stance against China is adopted.
- Indian Americans: With around 4.5 million Indian-Americans in the US, their role in shaping perceptions and policies on India-US relations is crucial.
- Climate and Technology: Future collaboration on climate change and technology transfer will hinge on the new administration’s priorities.
If Harris assumes the presidency, her approach may largely reflect the policies of the Biden administration, focusing on economic resilience and domestic manufacturing. Conversely, Trump’s protectionist tendencies may influence trade relations, as he previously criticized India’s trade practices.
Ultimately, the US relationship remains vital for India, and regardless of the election outcome, India is likely to seek cooperation with the incoming administration to advance mutual interests. The next president’s priorities will significantly shape the trajectory of India-US relations in the coming years.
