The Indian mission in Dhaka is currently undergoing a major overhaul. Just a week after Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-time leader, departed the country abruptly, India’s diplomatic and security teams have initiated efforts to engage with the new interim government.
Pranay Verma, India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, promptly met with Mohd Yunus, who assumed leadership of the interim government on Thursday night. India’s interest in an ‘inclusive’ advisory council supported by the military aligns with its strategic goals, as opposed to a government led solely by a political party like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or a BNP-led coalition with the Jamaat-e-Islami. Since 2009, India has been seen as a staunch ally of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League, often sidelining other political factions.
Despite attempts by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami to engage with India since 2011, both the UPA and Modi administrations have been cautious, due to the history of hostility and anti-India activities from the BNP-Jamaat coalition. The insurgency in India’s northeast was exacerbated during this period, only being addressed after joint operations led to the capture of key insurgent leaders in 2011-12.
Indian diplomats and security officials in Dhaka will now have to work diligently to build relationships with the new Bangladeshi leadership. Mohd Yunus is somewhat familiar to Indian officials, though there is skepticism regarding his leadership capabilities, given his lack of government experience and his Western orientation. The primary concern is his ability to manage the diverse and potentially extreme views within the interim advisory council.
India maintains a positive relationship with Bangladesh’s current military leadership, who have generally viewed India favorably. During the recent crisis, Indian and Bangladeshi military and intelligence agencies stayed in constant communication, and an emergency evacuation plan was reviewed. This plan, initially established after the 2009 BDR mutiny, was designed to ensure the safety of Indian diplomats and their families, although evacuation by Indian Air Force planes was eventually deemed too risky.
As Sheikh Hasina was preparing to leave, Indian officials had advised her advisers to seek a conciliatory approach toward protesting students, but Hasina remained resolute, suspecting a conspiracy involving the U.S. Her exit was ultimately facilitated by a call from her son, Sajeeb Wajed Joy, who convinced her to leave.
For Hasina’s future, the fact that she remains in India suggests that India is open to her presence in the short term. Whether she will return to Bangladesh is uncertain, though her son hints at a possible comeback. For India, the close alliance with Hasina’s administration has ended, and the focus now shifts to navigating a new diplomatic landscape. The coming months will be crucial for Indian diplomacy as it adjusts to the evolving political environment in Bangladesh, recognizing that India’s geographical proximity remains a significant factor in the region.
