Local exit polls in India suggested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely win a legislative majority, putting him on track for an unprecedented third consecutive term in office. His alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party is driving this campaign.
Several pollsters, including India Today (Axis My India), Today’s Chanakya, Times Now (ETG), C-Voter, and CSDS-Lokniti, have released their exit poll forecasts for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The local news channel NDTV published an exit poll summary, predicting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win approximately 365 out of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. For a party or alliance to establish a government, they must receive at least 272 votes.
Here’s what different exit polls have predicted
The Indian election, the largest democratic polling event in the world, began on April 19 and took place over the previous six weeks in seven phases, involving almost a billion eligible voters. The lower house’s 543 contested seats will allow the party or alliance with at least 272 votes to establish the government.
India has made tremendous economic progress and improved its international standing during Modi’s ten years in office. India, a country of 1.4 billion people, boasts one of the fastest-growing economies globally, with its economy growing by 7.2% in the fiscal year 2022–2023, ranking second among G20 nations. The International Monetary Fund predicts that India’s economy will grow by 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, in contrast to China’s projected growth of 4.5% in 2025 and 5% in 2024.
Even more upbeat economists exist. “I think it is possible to achieve 7%–7.5% growth,” stated Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers chief economist Sujan Hajra to the news media. “The larger you grow, the more difficult it becomes to sustain a very high level of growth.” In order to spur growth, he continued, upgrading infrastructure will be a top priority. Hajra stated, “We have already done a lot of work on the hard infrastructure, so this time around, we will significantly emphasize soft infrastructure—like strengthening the nation’s health care system.”
As per the BJP’s plan for the forthcoming term, Modi promised that his administration will make India one of the top three economies globally, combat poverty head-on, create new economic opportunities, and take on corruption.
Analysts think that Modi’s assurance that the BJP and the larger National Democratic Alliance would win 400 seats is less significant as long as he stays near the 303 seats he won in 2019. This was reportedly stated by Modi in March. “We’ve seen the kind of progress and efficiency that he’s been able to bring from a governance perspective since 2019 with 303 seats, so it will still be a very positive outlook for the Indian equity market,” said Malcolm Dorson, Global X ETFs’ senior portfolio manager and head of emerging markets strategy.
Here are the poll results in some of the most talked-about states in India:
India Today-Axis My India poll study has predicted a massive gain for the BJP in Karnataka, a state it lost to the Congress just a few months back. Meanwhile, the India TV-CNX poll indicates that the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP and the NDA are likely to sweep the Andhra Pradesh polls.
The BJP may win big in Delhi this time. The party has been winning all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi for the past two elections. This time too, the BJP may win all seven seats. Today’s Chanakya predicted 6 ± 1 seats for the BJP.
The BJP is likely to make its Lok Sabha debut in Tamil Nadu by winning one to three Lok Sabha seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll.
As per India TV-CNX, the NDA is likely to sweep Andhra Pradesh, and the BJP may lead in Telangana.
Axis My India exit polls showed that the BJP may open its account in Kerala, the state where it didn’t win a single seat.
- Congress: 13-14 seats
- BJP: 2-3 seats
- UDF: 4 seats
As per India Today-Axis My India polls in Karnataka:
- BJP: likely to win 20-22 seats
- JDS: 2-3 seats
- Congress: 3-5 seats
This indicates a gain for the BJP as it had lost the Karnataka Assembly polls in 2023. The Congress had won the 2023 assembly polls.
Tamil Nadu has a total of 39 Lok Sabha seats, and the polling for Lok Sabha elections was done on 19 April. In Tamil Nadu, here’s what parties are likely to win as per India Today-Axis My India poll:
- BJP: 1-3 seats
- DMK: 20-22 seats
- Congress: 6-8 seats
- AIADMK: 2-3 seats
