The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi, clinched victories in three pivotal state elections in India ahead of the looming general elections. The BJP retained power in Madhya Pradesh and secured wins in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while the main opposition Congress claimed victory in Telangana. With more than 160 million eligible voters, these outcomes were closely watched, but their significance in predicting Modi’s chances in the general elections is limited.
State elections often revolve around regional concerns, distinct from the national issues addressed in general elections. Despite Congress winning key states in 2018, the BJP later swept the national elections, illustrating this distinction. Nonetheless, Modi’s success in these recent state elections provides a considerable boost to his ambitions for a record third term.
The BJP’s triumph in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, along with retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, solidifies its stronghold in the “Hindi heartland” of northern and central India. This region contributes significantly to parliamentary seats, and the BJP’s success here positions them strongly. The party’s ability to govern 15 out of 28 states, regaining control in key areas, underscores its dominance.
For the Congress, these state elections held added importance. An improved performance would have elevated its standing as a leader in a potential opposition alliance. However, the party faced challenges, struggling to convert state victories into success at the national level. Despite anti-incumbency being harsher on Congress, it did manage to secure Telangana, continuing its progress in southern India.
Various factors influenced voting behavior, including governance records, caste considerations, and the BJP’s Hindu nationalism appeal. Modi’s promises of welfare initiatives, such as free grain distribution and monthly stipends for eligible women, played a role in the party’s resurgence, particularly in Madhya Pradesh.
Competitive populism, marked by welfare promises, characterized the campaigns, revealing the vulnerabilities of millions dependent on state assistance. Modi’s enduring popularity, evidenced in a nationwide poll, coupled with the BJP’s vast resources and organizational strength, positions them favorably for the upcoming general elections. The party’s comprehensive approach and media support contribute to Modi’s and the BJP’s apparent advantage as they aim for a historic third term next year.
