This month, the US Presidential race has seen a significant shift with Kamala Harris entering the fray. National polls reflect a growing wave of support for the Democratic candidate, with many surveys showing her gaining an advantage in key swing states. The outcome of the election will hinge on the results from these battleground states, which will ultimately determine the Electoral College outcome in early November.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes. Each state’s electoral votes are based on its congressional delegation, which includes the number of House Representatives and Senators. For example, Georgia, with 14 Representatives and 2 Senators, has 16 electors.
Swing states, which are crucial in determining election outcomes, can significantly influence the result. In the 2024 race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, these ‘purple states’ contribute nearly 100 electoral votes.
Polls from late August 2024 reveal a notable shift in favor of Harris. Following the Democratic National Convention, recent data from battleground states show Harris leading Trump. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicates Harris holds an edge in the seven most pivotal states. Similarly, a survey from FAU PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research USA shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points among US voters, with similar trends in other polls, including Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos.
Swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, play a critical role in elections. These states often experience tight races and fluctuating results. In the 2020 election, seven states had narrow margins, with Joe Biden winning several key ones and Trump securing others.
Currently, the electoral vote allocation for these swing states is as follows:
– Arizona: 11
– Georgia: 16
– Pennsylvania: 19
– Michigan: 15
– North Carolina: 16
– Nevada: 6
– Wisconsin: 10
Harris now leads by 2 percentage points among registered voters in these states and maintains a slight lead among likely voters. The statistical margin of error is 1 percentage point. The most notable shift has occurred in North Carolina, where Harris has gained a 2-point lead despite Trump’s previous 10-point advantage. This shift has prompted Republicans to invest heavily in supporting Trump, spending over $16 million on ads in recent weeks.
