S&P Global Insights underscores the significance of India’s robust economic growth and promising forecasts in Southeast Asian nations as pivotal factors driving global economic expansion. Rajiv Biswas, S&P Global’s Asia-Pacific chief economist, emphasized the region’s role not only in the immediate future but also over the long term. He highlighted the Asia-Pacific as a crucial catalyst for global economic growth, particularly India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Biswas projected that the Asia-Pacific region would be the world’s fastest-growing over the next decade. India, in particular, is poised for substantial economic expansion, with Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam also expected to experience robust growth, making them among the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets.
Vietnam’s second-quarter GDP demonstrated rapid growth, while Indonesia’s economy expanded significantly in the June quarter. Although the Philippine economy’s growth rate slightly missed expectations, India posted an impressive 7.8% growth rate in the June quarter, marking its fastest pace in a year.
S&P Global’s forecast suggests that India is on track to surpass Japan and become the third-largest economy by 2030, with its GDP projected to rise from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030.
While the Asia-Pacific region is expected to strengthen its growth from 3.3% last year to 4.2% this year, Biswas anticipates that around 55% of the world’s total GDP increase over the next decade will originate from this region.
Despite the growing prominence of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States will remain a significant driver of global economic growth, contributing to 15% of the world’s growth in the next decade. China, too, will play a pivotal role, accounting for approximately one-third of the total global growth increase during the same period. However, Biswas noted that China’s recovery has been somewhat weaker than anticipated, and its growth momentum has faced challenges, as evidenced by a series of economic data falling short of expectations.
Overall, S&P Global anticipates global growth to reach 2.5% this year and the following year.
