India’s trade balance with the United States could witness a dramatic expansion over the next year, potentially crossing ninety billion dollars annually, according to a recent assessment by the State Bank of India. The projection is largely driven by a substantial increase in outbound shipments from India, coupled with a structured rise in imports from the United States following tariff adjustments under the evolving trade framework.
The report estimates that Indian exporters could significantly scale up shipments of the top fifteen product categories to the US market, adding nearly ninety-seven billion dollars in incremental export value within a year. When other product categories are factored in, the total export potential is expected to comfortably move beyond one hundred billion dollars annually. Analysts describe the reduction in tariffs as a rare window of opportunity for Indian manufacturers and exporters to strengthen their foothold in the American market and capture a larger share across multiple sectors.
India’s trade surplus with the United States has already shown strong momentum. The surplus stood at approximately forty point nine billion dollars in one fiscal year and reached around twenty-six billion dollars during the first nine months of the following fiscal cycle. With the anticipated export surge, the overall annual surplus could expand well beyond ninety billion dollars, marking a significant shift in bilateral trade dynamics. The report suggests that this development could contribute roughly one point one percent to India’s gross domestic product.
Despite the United States accounting for nearly twenty percent of India’s total exports, its share in India’s imports remains close to seven percent. In services imports, the American share is about fifteen percent, signaling considerable untapped potential for US exporters in the Indian market. On the goods side alone, the United States is estimated to have an annual export opportunity exceeding fifty billion dollars to India, excluding services.
India has agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on a broad range of American industrial products and agricultural goods. Over the next five years, India intends to procure goods worth five hundred billion dollars from the United States, potentially increasing imports by around fifty-five billion dollars. In select commodities, the American share in India’s imports already ranges between twenty and forty percent and could expand further as duties are lowered.
For example, the United States currently supplies about ninety percent of India’s almond imports. Tariff reductions in such categories could generate foreign exchange savings between one hundred million and one hundred fifty million dollars. Overall savings from lower import duties are estimated at nearly three billion dollars, with additional gains possible through strategic import substitution.
