In anticipation of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, India TV-CNX carried out a comprehensive opinion poll to understand the sentiments of the electorate. The general elections, scheduled to unfold in seven phases, will commence on April 19, with the vote counting process slated for June 4, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi vies for a third term in office.
The opinion poll forecasts that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, could secure 399 of the 543 available Lok Sabha seats if the elections were to be conducted presently. Within this estimate, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone is predicted to clinch 342 seats, according to the findings of the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. Conversely, the opposition coalition led by the Congress, known as the I.N.D.I.A. bloc (excluding Trinamool Congress), is expected to win 94 seats. The projection also suggests that other parties, including the Trinamool Congress, YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), and independent candidates, could collectively win 50 seats.
The results of this opinion poll were broadcasted by the news channel in two segments, on consecutive days. This extensive survey spanned all 543 constituencies from March 1 to March 30, engaging a total of 1,79,190 respondents, comprised of 91,100 males and 88,090 females.
The breakdown of seat predictions by party is as follows: BJP is anticipated to win 342 seats, Congress 38 seats, Trinamool Congress 19 seats, DMK 18 seats, JD-U 14 seats, TDP 12 seats, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 6 seats, Samajwadi Party (SP) 3 seats, and other parties are expected to secure 91 seats in total.
According to the poll, the BJP is poised for a sweeping victory across several states, claiming all seats in Gujarat (26), Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25), Haryana (10), Delhi (7), Uttarakhand (5), and Himachal Pradesh (4). A remarkable victory is projected in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP may win 73 of the 80 seats, with its allies, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal (S), possibly winning two seats each. This leaves a scant three seats for the Samajwadi Party, with both the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) potentially failing to win any seats in UP.
Other significant wins for the BJP are forecasted in Bihar (17 of 40 seats), Jharkhand (12 of 14 seats), Karnataka (22 of 28 seats), Maharashtra (27 of 48 seats), Odisha (10 of 21 seats), Assam (11 of 14 seats), and West Bengal (22 of 42 seats).
Among the regional parties, the Trinamool Congress is expected to win 19 seats in West Bengal, the DMK to secure 18 seats in Tamil Nadu, the YSRCP to garner 10 and the TDP 12 seats in Andhra Pradesh, and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is projected to win 11 of 21 seats in Odisha.
Following is the state-wise break-up of India TV-CNX Opinion Poll projections:
Andhra Pradesh: Total 25 (YSRCP 10, TDP 12, BJP 3)
Arunachal Pradesh: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Assam: Total 14 (BJP 11, AGP 1, UPPL 1, AIUDF 1, Congress 0)
Bihar: Total 40 (BJP 17, JD-U 14, RJD 1, LJP(R) 5, HAM 1, RLM 1, Congress 1)
Chhattisgarh: Total 11 (BJP 10, Congress 1)
Goa: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Gujarat: Total 26 (BJP 26)
Haryana: Total 10 (BJP 10)
Himachal Pradesh: Total 4 (BJP 4)
Jharkhand: Total 14 (BJP 12, AJSU 1, JMM 1)
Karnataka: Total 28 (BJP 22, JDS 2, Congress 4)
Kerala: Total 20 (UDF 10, LDF 7, NDA 3) Breakup: Congress 7, CPI-M 5, BJP 3, CPI 1, KC-M 1, IUML 2, RSP 1
Madhya Pradesh: Total 29 (BJP 29)
Maharashtra: Total 48 (BJP 27, Shiv Sena-UBT 7, NCP (Ajit) 2, Shiv Sena-Shinde 8, NCP-Sharad 2, Congress 1, Others 1)
Manipur: Total 2 (BJP 1, Congress 1)
Meghalaya: Total 2 (NPP 1, Congress 1)
Mizoram: Total 1 (ZPM 1)
Nagaland: Total 1 (NDPP 1)
Odisha: Total 21 (BJD 11, BJP 10)
Punjab: Total 13 (AAP 6, Congress 3, BJP 3, SAD 1)
Rajasthan: Total 25 (BJP 25)
Sikkim: Total 1 (SKM 1)
Tamil Nadu: Total 39 (DMK 18, AIADMK 4, BJP 3, Congress 8, PMK 1, Others 5)
Telangana: Total 17 (Congress 9, BJP 5, BRS 2, AIMIM 1)
Tripura: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Uttar Pradesh: Total 80 (BJP 73, NDA allies RLD 2, Apna Dal (S) 2, SP 3, Congress 0, BSP 0)
Uttarakhand: Total 5 (BJP 5)
West Bengal: Total 42 (Trinamool Congress 19, BJP 22, Congress 1)
Andaman and Nicobar: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Chandigarh: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Jammu and Kashmir: Total 5 (BJP 3, National Conference 3, Congress 0, PDP 0)
Ladakh: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Lakshadweep: Total 1 (Congress 1)
Delhi: Total 7 (BJP 7 )
Puducherry: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Total 543 seats: NDA 399, I.N.D.I.A. 94, Others including TMC 50.
