India’s economic prospects for the fiscal year 2025–26 remain upbeat, with Deloitte India projecting GDP growth between 6.4% and 6.7%, an improvement buoyed by resilient consumer demand, favorable policy direction, and an expanding presence in global trade. This comes after the country registered 6.5% GDP growth in FY 2024–25, maintaining its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
The consultancy firm noted that India’s steady capital markets, growing consumption, and a globally relevant workforce form the backbone of its current momentum. Deloitte economist Rumki Majumdar emphasized that this “virtuous trifecta” supports India’s ability to weather global headwinds while pushing ahead with strategic economic reforms.
Ongoing trade negotiations with the UK, US, and EU are expected to play a pivotal role in unlocking new markets, enhancing income and employment levels, and fostering collaboration in frontier sectors like artificial intelligence, digital innovation, and tech entrepreneurship. These partnerships are forecasted to significantly boost domestic demand and long-term growth potential.
However, Deloitte also warned that geopolitical uncertainties—including regional conflicts and export restrictions on essential minerals and fertilizers—could challenge India’s trade exposure. Even so, the broader outlook remains optimistic, with India’s internal strengths acting as a buffer against external shocks.
Morgan Stanley’s latest projection suggests India is set to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, with its GDP potentially doubling to $10.6 trillion by 2035. It predicts that states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka may individually reach $1 trillion GDP, placing them among the world’s top 20 economies.
Reinforcing this view, JP Morgan recently called India a “safe haven” among emerging markets, citing declining inflation, improved liquidity, and reduced government borrowing. These factors, combined with fiscal stimulus and urban household resilience, are expected to uphold robust growth.
India has already overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy, with its current GDP at $4.187 trillion, as confirmed by IMF data. This milestone, achieved amid global uncertainty, underscores India’s rising stature in the international economic landscape.
