The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has forecasted a 27% rise in cotton exports, expecting to reach around 2.8 million bales by the end of the 2023-24 crop year in September. This anticipated increase follows the previous year’s export total of 2.2 million bales. The surge in demand is attributed to the competitive pricing of Indian cotton, which was 8-10% lower than international rates between December 2023 and March 2024. Key markets driving this demand include Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam. Despite the steady production estimate of 30.97 million bales for the 2023-24 period, this figure represents a slight decrease from the 31.89 million bales produced in the prior season. By April 2024, the total cotton supply is projected to be 31.586 million bales, consisting of 28.196 million bales of pressing, 0.5 million bales of imports, and an opening stock of 2.89 million bales.
As of April 2024, cotton consumption is expected to be 19.25 million bales, with exports projected at 2.15 million bales. The estimated closing stock by April is 10.186 million bales, with textile mills holding 4.05 million bales, sufficient for over 45 days of consumption. The remaining 6.136 million bales will be held by various entities, including the Cotton Corporation of India. For the entire 2023-24 season, CAI projects the total cotton supply to be 35.9 million bales, which includes the opening stock of 2.89 million bales, an estimated cotton pressing of 30.97 million bales, and imports totaling 2.04 million bales. Notably, cotton imports are expected to increase by 0.79 million bales compared to the previous year.
Overall, CAI’s projections suggest a positive outlook for India’s cotton sector, supported by competitive pricing, stable production estimates, and growing export demand, despite some anticipated challenges in production and supply.
