India is projected to move ahead of Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, according to the latest World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report estimates India’s nominal GDP to reach approximately $4,187 billion, narrowly surpassing Japan’s projected GDP of $4,186 billion.
This surge reinforces India’s status as the fastest-growing major economy, with growth rates expected to exceed 6 percent over the next two years—an unmatched performance among global heavyweights.
Meanwhile, Japan’s economy is anticipated to be one of the major casualties of the ongoing global trade conflict. The IMF forecasts minimal expansion for Japan, at just 0.6 percent annually in both 2025 and 2026.
India’s economic momentum is not expected to slow down. By 2028, the IMF projects the country’s GDP will grow to around $5,584 billion, putting it ahead of Germany and positioning India as the third-largest global economy. Germany, which is projected to suffer significantly from trade disruptions, is expected to report zero growth in 2025 and only 0.9 percent in 2026, with its GDP reaching about $5,252 billion by 2028.
In contrast, the United States is forecast to maintain its position as the world’s largest economy with a projected GDP of $30,507 billion in 2025, though its growth is expected to decelerate to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026. China remains the second-largest economy, with GDP estimates around $19,232 billion for 2025.
The Euro Area is expected to grow modestly at 0.8 percent in 2025, recovering slightly to 1.2 percent the following year. France is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, while the UK is projected to see 1.1% and 1.4% growth, respectively. Spain is projected to outpace its regional peers with a robust 2.5% growth in 2025, before moderating to 1.8% in 2026.
