Ficci’s recent Economic Outlook Survey forecasts a 6.3% growth for India’s economy in FY24, citing a robust financial sector, strong urban demand, increased private investments due to government capital expenditure, and a resurging real estate sector. Notable economists contributed to this survey conducted in September 2023.
However, external factors pose uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, China’s economic slowdown, and the impact of an El Niño-influenced monsoon season. Agricultural growth is expected to slow due to reduced monsoon rainfall (2.7% in the current fiscal year compared to 4% in FY23), while the industry and services sectors are predicted to grow at 5.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
Inflation remains uncertain, with CPI-based inflation projected at 5.5% in FY24, reflecting potential price volatility. The survey acknowledges persistent challenges in food prices and the influence of factors like the Black Sea grain deal cancellation and rising crude prices.
On the investment front, government-driven capital expenditure has spurred private investments and expansion. However, achieving full investment momentum will take more time, with further rebounds reliant on increased domestic and international consumption activities.
