India should avoid rushing into a trade agreement with the United States and instead focus on a calculated, long-term strategy that strengthens its negotiating position, according to a new report released by SBI Research on Friday. The report argues that maintaining constructive dialogue while resisting pressure for immediate concessions could ultimately help India secure a more favorable trade deal.
The report recommends that India keep diplomatic engagement positive, avoid public disputes, and make only limited commitments that can be adjusted if necessary. Rather than reacting quickly to the US administration’s opening demands, India should wait until Washington faces the economic and political costs of its own negotiating stance. At that stage, the US may be more willing to offer better terms as its priorities become clearer.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at the State Bank of India, said India should demonstrate patience and resilience, even if doing so brings short-term challenges. He noted that standing firm would reinforce India’s long-term interests and test the determination of the US administration. According to him, a measured approach would eventually work in India’s favor.
The report highlights that the US has adopted uncertainty as a negotiation tool across several international issues, including tariff policies, NATO, China, Iran, and Greenland. This strategy creates ambiguity, making it difficult for negotiating partners to predict Washington’s final position and forcing them to decide whether to compromise, delay, or push back.
SBI Research points out that while the US gains leverage in the short term through this approach, repeated uncertainty could weaken confidence among allies and trading partners over time. If countries begin to expect the US to soften its position once economic pressures increase, the effectiveness of its bargaining tactics may gradually diminish.
The report also emphasizes India’s unique strengths, including its vast consumer market, skilled technology workforce, pharmaceutical industry, defense partnerships, energy flexibility, global diaspora, and growing role in the Indo-Pacific region. These factors provide India with meaningful leverage despite the broader geopolitical landscape.
Separately, the report noted that global shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains uneven despite the June 17 agreement between the US and Iran to end hostilities. While crude oil shipments have resumed gradually, agricultural cargo traffic has recovered only partially, and shipments related to liquefied natural gas and fertilizers continue to remain largely absent, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in global trade routes.
