US President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin, UK PM Rishi Sunak, France’s Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and numerous other global leaders congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he embarks on his third term.

Congratulations also came from the European Union, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Chinese government, celebrating the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s majority win in the Lok Sabha elections.

Leaders from neighboring countries, including the Presidents of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Iran, Seychelles, and Prime Ministers of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Mauritius, sent their greetings. Additionally, the Presidents of Nigeria, Kenya, and Comoros, as well as leaders from the Caribbean nations Jamaica and Barbados, and South America’s Guyana, extended their congratulations.

From the G20 nations, the Prime Ministers of Italy and Japan, and the President of South Korea congratulated Modi. Leaders from Southeast Asia, including the Prime Ministers of Singapore and Malaysia, also sent their best wishes.

The BJP emerged as the single largest party in the 543-member Lok Sabha by winning 240 seats. With the support of its allies, the BJP-led NDA reached the 272-majority mark.

UNITED STATES
US President Joe Biden congratulates PM Modi via a tweet, expressing his intent to strengthen India-US relations. Biden tweeted his congratulations to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the National Democratic Alliance on their victory, noting that the friendship between the two nations continues to grow as they work towards a shared future of limitless potential.

RUSSIA
The Kremlin reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated PM Modi on the election results.

FRANCE
French President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Modi on securing a third term, emphasizing the strong strategic partnership between India and France. Macron stated that India has successfully completed the world’s largest elections and congratulated his friend, Narendra Modi. He emphasized their commitment to further strengthen the strategic partnership between their nations.

ISRAEL
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu warmly congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his third consecutive term, expressing hope that the friendship between India and Israel will continue to reach new heights.

UKRAINE
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky commended India’s democratic process and congratulated Modi on his victory, wishing the people of India peace and prosperity and expressing hope for ongoing cooperation between the two countries.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s High Commissioner Simon Wong and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong both offered their congratulations. “With the NDA win for a third term, we look forward to Bharat marching ahead,” Simon Wong posted. Lawrence Wong also remarked, “Congratulations on the NDA’s historic third consecutive term victory. Anticipate enhancing the Singapore-India partnership together.”

SRI LANKA
Sri Lankan President extended his congratulations to Modi, emphasizing the importance of India-Sri Lanka relations. “I extend my warmest felicitations to the BJP-led NDA on its victory,” the President said.

SOUTH KOREA
Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol congratulated Modi, which Modi acknowledged with gratitude.

MALDIVES
Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu congratulated Modi and expressed his desire to advance bilateral ties. Modi also thanked former Maldivian President Ibrahim Solih for his wishes.

MALAYSIA
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim congratulated Modi, to which Modi responded by expressing a desire to enhance the India-Malaysia partnership.

ITALY
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni congratulated Modi on his third consecutive term, highlighting the commitment to deepening Italy-India relations. Modi thanked her and committed to strengthening the strategic partnership.

NEPAL
Nepal’s Prime Minister ‘Prachanda’ and Sher Bahadur Deuba congratulated Modi on the electoral success. Modi expressed his desire to further strengthen the India-Nepal relationship.

MAURITIUS
Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth congratulated Modi, to which Modi responded by emphasizing the special relationship between India and Mauritius.

UAE
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan congratulated Modi, referring to him as ‘brother’ and expressing hope for enhanced India-UAE relations. Modi reciprocated the sentiments.

EGYPT
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi also congratulated Modi, and Modi thanked him for his warm words, expressing a desire to strengthen ties.

BHUTAN
Bhutan’s Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay congratulated Modi, expressing a desire to work closely to strengthen relations between the two countries.

BARBADOS
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley congratulated Modi on securing a historic third term, and Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness also extended his best wishes.

OTHER LEADERS/PERSONALITIES
American corporate leader John Chambers congratulated Modi, expressing confidence in continued positive Indo-US momentum. African-American singer Mary Millben described Modi’s victory as a “historic day” for India and the world, emphasizing his role as a leader chosen by God and the people of India.

TULSI GABBARD
Former US Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard congratulated Modi, highlighting the shared democratic values and mutual interests between India and the US.

Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, congratulated the people of India for their commitment to democracy, acknowledging the successful conduct of the elections without allegations of massive rigging.

India recently held its general elections in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, 2024, selecting all 543 Lok Sabha members. With over 968 million eligible voters out of a population of 1.4 billion, the turnout reached an amazing 642 million, including 312 million women, a historic high.The recent election results in India have brought different reactions from leaders. Uday Kotak points out the government’s focus on healthcare, housing, and infrastructure. Kunal and Pankaj Sharma see growth in real estate and education. Ricky Vasandani notes sector-specific growth, while Anupam Mittal talks about the political scene.

Uday Kotak, Chairperson of Kotak Securities

“We believe that the government will continue its focus on key areas such as (1) affordable healthcare and housing, (2) energy transition, (3) infrastructure development (defence, railways and roads) and (4) manufacturing. We note that the government has already executed the bulk of the required reforms for incentivizing private investments”

Kunal Sharma, Founder of Kunal Realty:

The BJP-led NDA’s continued governance signifies economic stability and growth, which is essential for the real estate sector. We foresee streamlined regulations and policies that will enhance investor confidence in commercial and residential properties. This political stability can drive significant infrastructural development, creating more opportunities for both buyers and developers, and shaping a more robust real estate market.

Mr. Pankaj Sharma – President, The Lexicon Group of Institutes

This is the time when India is about to rise and shine. I am looking forward to a stable government. The education sector is poised for transformative growth. We anticipate enhanced digital infrastructure and innovative policies that will elevate educational standards and accessibility across India. This stability will allow us to focus on fostering a culture of excellence and innovation in learning, benefiting students and educators alike. Looking forward to a government that lasts and is able to take decisions freely.

Pallavi Jha – Chairperson & MD Walchand PeopleFirst Ltd Dale Carnegie India

The 2024 Indian election results exemplify that true leadership goes beyond authority, it is about inspiring and mobilizing diverse voices towards a common goal. In politics the Dale Carnegie principle, “Talk in terms of the other person’s interest” is the only thing that works. Moreover, collaboration among the coalition members underscores the importance of having a higher purpose, like saving the constitution, that helped gain alignment and overcome divisions to achieve collective success. It is this combination that drives meaningful change and fosters a thriving democracy.

Dr. Moksha Kalyanram Abhiramula, Advocate, Managing Partner, La Mintage Legal LLP

Narendra Modiji, illustrious leader, esteemed Prime Minister for Bharat. MODI 3.0 – ki guarantees welfare, digital India, Aatmanirbhar, Amrit Peedi and Vikshit Bharat 2047 are promising and achievable. However, NDA decrease in seats in Lok Sabha elections 2024 is mainly due to voter fatigue and freebie offers of Rs. 1 lakh annually. INDIA blocs (combined 37 parties) with extraordinary efforts of grassroots mobilization and strategic alliances with regional parties are weaker claimed combinations.

Chumki Bose, Chief Psychologist at Mindtribe.in

In India, psychological identity is increasingly being replaced by political and religious identity. This shift stems from rising nationalism and communalism, where political and religious affiliations dictate social interactions, community belonging, and self-perception. The growing influence of political parties and religious groups fosters a collective identity, overshadowing individual psychological traits. This transformation affects social cohesion, with personal identities being subsumed under broader ideological narratives, reshaping societal dynamics and personal relationships in the process.

Basant Goel – Dedicated Social Worker and Community Advocate

The recent election results are a beacon of hope for enhanced social welfare initiatives. I am optimistic about the potential for new policies that prioritize the needs of the underprivileged and promote social equity. This is a pivotal moment to advance community development and create a more inclusive society where everyone has the opportunity to flourish.

Raj Janagam, CEO, Vidhaata Consulting

“This election symbolizes the dawn of a new era of democratic DNA in our country. The mandate, if not dismissed in binary terms, should help us realize that the Indian voter is looking for genuine assistance beyond freebies and is far from gullible. Most importantly, it is a powerful message to the government that real help is needed, beyond mere promises of free ration and manifesto pledges.” 

Alok Misra, CA, Founder Vanaprastha Resorts, yoga enthusiastWe as a citizen of India have the collective responsibility for the General Welfare of the society. In democracy, the process of general election is very significant as by our vote we make or break our nation. Our vote should be based on the ideology of the Party as well as its performance on national, international  issues  besides governance, economic growth & pride in the preservation & promotion of national heritage.

Anupam Mittal, CEO of People Group and Shaadi.com

“Wow, what a mandate, especially UP. That’s why they say, ‘Never underestimate the power of the common man’ Now, all eyes are on BJP’s internal power dynamics & NDA politics. Picture abhi baaki hai,” 

Arpit Thakar, founder of Vakalat.com,

“The results have restored faith in the famous line from our Constitution: ‘We the people of India.’ They affirm that no one can predetermine the number—whether 400 or 295—before elections. This has strengthened our democracy,” said Arpit Thakar, founder of Vakalat.com, a fast-growing digital platform for lawyers.

Hitesh Vishwakarma,  President of Shri Bajrang Sena

“India has placed its faith in Narendra Modi, the ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat,’ for the third consecutive time, demonstrating that there is still much work to be done. From now on, no one will dare to promote synthetic secularism,” says Hitesh Vishwakarma, president of Shri Bajrang Sena, a saffron organization with more than 90 branches across the country.

Devam Sardana, Business Head, Lemonn

“Traditionally, election years have been beneficial for the stock market. Over the past 4-5 years, the lowest gain for the Nifty has been 13%. In the current election period, from January 1st to May 31st, the Nifty gained only around 4.5%. This suggests that there is still room for growth. On June 3, the Nifty experienced a single-day gain of 3.25%, indicating a potential for further growth. Historically, India has been a promising market for small-cap stocks. However, India is now a quasi-large cap market, which may lead to reduced volatility in the coming weeks. Foreign investors are likely to be interested in India due to the government’s focus on manufacturing, infrastructure, and investment. Key sectors to watch include capital goods, infrastructure, and manufacturing, particularly PSU companies.

The government has demonstrated its commitment to increasing capital expenditures, with a record spend of over 11 trillion INR in the last 6-7 years. This is expected to be aided by the 2 trillion INR dividend from the Reserve Bank of India. Despite some initial fears about mid-cap and small-cap stocks, stability is likely to return in the next 2-3 weeks. There may be some short-term profit booking, but the themes of manufacturing and infrastructure will continue to drive growth across large, mid, and small-cap companies. Overall, the market is poised for new all-time highs due to the stability in the economy, GDP numbers exceeding forecasts, and foreign investors’ interest in India’s growth story.”

Ricky Vasandani, CEO and Co-Founder, Solitario

“The continuity of the present government is promising for the future of the lab-grown diamond industry in India. Building on the measures taken during their last tenure, we anticipate extended support and innovation in this sector by the new administration as well. So far, the lab-grown diamond industry has seen some great initiatives, and the elimination of customs duties on essential seeds demonstrates a clear vision for establishing India as a global leader in sustainable, high-quality lab-grown diamonds. We expect that the union will continue to pave the way for significant growth and reduced import reliance, ultimately making India a powerhouse in the lab-grown diamond market.”

Lokesh Nigam, CEO and Co-Founder, Konverz.ai

“India, the world’s largest democracy, champions fairness, universal welfare, and continuous development, a commitment evident in our elections. Our society thrives on diverse thoughts and solutions reflective of the people’s mandates. Regardless of party ideologies, each government propels India’s story forward. Congratulations to the newly elected Parliamentarians and the Election Commission for ensuring free, fair, and impartial polls. I look forward to the new government steering India ahead.”

US President Joe Biden extends congratulations to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for their election victory, securing 293 seats in the 543-member parliament, enough to form a government. Biden, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), underscores the growing friendship between the two nations and their shared future potential.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conveys his congratulations to Modi during a telephone call, wishing him success for his third term. Sunak emphasizes the strong friendship between the UK and India, expressing optimism about its continued prosperity under Modi’s leadership.

French President Emmanuel Macron offers his congratulations to Modi in both French and English online, acknowledging India’s conclusion of the world’s largest elections. Macron reaffirms his commitment to strengthening the strategic partnership between India and France, aligning with efforts by several European countries to enhance bilateral trade, security, and other ties with India.

Despite the increasing volumes of bilateral trade and Indian exports to France in recent years, these levels still do not fully reflect India’s size, primarily due to the significant distance between the countries. For instance, France’s bilateral trade levels with India are comparable to those with much smaller countries like Sweden, underscoring the potential for further growth and collaboration between India and European nations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be sworn in on June 9, following the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) securing a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to sources reported by India Today. Alongside him, the newly appointed cabinet of Union Ministers will also take their oaths on the same day. 

In a related development, the 17th Lok Sabha cabinet has recommended its dissolution. The 2024 Lok Sabha election results came as a surprise, with the Opposition INDIA alliance exceeding exit poll expectations, thereby preventing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from achieving the projected clear majority of over 300 seats.

Today, the BJP-led NDA is set to convene a meeting in Delhi, one day after the announcement of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. Prime Minister Modi will preside over this meeting, which will also see the attendance of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, as reported by the news agency PTI citing sources.

In Bihar, both the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) and the BJP won 12 seats each. Furthermore, Chirag Paswan, chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), announced that his party would participate in this meeting. Paswan reiterated his party’s support for the NDA, expressing confidence that Prime Minister Modi’s third term would lead the country to new heights and fulfill development promises.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party secured 16 and 2 seats respectively, while the BJP won 3 seats. The YSR Congress Party’s representation dropped significantly, from 22 seats to just 4. In the state elections, the TDP emerged victorious in 135 seats, with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party winning 21 out of 175 seats.

On the eve of vote counting, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar announced on Monday that the Lok Sabha elections in India have achieved the highest voter turnout in the world. He described the Indian elections as a “miracle” during a press conference.

During the press briefing, CEC Rajiv Kumar applauded the voters who participated in the Lok Sabha elections. He highlighted the record-breaking participation of 642 million voters, marking a historic achievement. This figure represents 1.5 times the combined voter base of the G7 countries and 2.5 times that of the 27 European Union (EU) countries. Kumar expressed gratitude to everyone who participated in what he called a festival of democracy, reiterating the unparalleled nature of the Indian elections.

Furthermore, Kumar noted that 312 million women voted in the 2024 General Elections, a number that is 1.25 times the total women voters in the last national elections of the 27 EU countries. This statistic underscores the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) commitment to inclusive elections.

Kumar also acknowledged the inspirational contributions of voters aged 85 and above, emphasizing their role as democratic heroes who have witnessed India’s journey from pre-independence to the present. He commended the election personnel for their meticulous efforts, which resulted in a significant reduction in repolls. Compared to 540 repolls in 2019, there were only 39 repolls in 2024, with 25 of those occurring in just two states.

The CEC extended special thanks to the people of Jammu and Kashmir for their high voter turnout, the highest in four decades. He also highlighted the presence of the largest-ever global delegation of 75 observers from 23 countries, who were impressed by India’s electoral process.

Kumar outlined the measures taken to ensure free and fair elections, which involved addressing and tackling issues related to muscle power, money, misinformation, and violations of the Model Code of Conduct. He proudly noted the absence of violence during these elections, attributing it to two years of preparation.

The CEC also reported a record seizure of almost Rs 10,000 crores during the election, nearly three times the amount seized in 2019. Local teams were empowered to enforce electoral regulations effectively.

Finally, Kumar explained the robust counting process to be used for declaring the election results on June 4, likening its precision to that of a clock. Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu also participated in the press conference.

According to exit polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to secure a massive majority, potentially achieving a third consecutive win in the Lok Sabha elections. Some exit polls even suggest that the NDA could surpass the target of 400 seats, a goal mentioned by BJP leaders during the campaign. The Lok Sabha elections, conducted in seven phases starting April 19, will have their votes counted on June 4, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the BJP’s campaign efforts.

Local exit polls in India suggested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely win a legislative majority, putting him on track for an unprecedented third consecutive term in office. His alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party is driving this campaign.

Several pollsters, including India Today (Axis My India), Today’s Chanakya, Times Now (ETG), C-Voter, and CSDS-Lokniti, have released their exit poll forecasts for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The local news channel NDTV published an exit poll summary, predicting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win approximately 365 out of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. For a party or alliance to establish a government, they must receive at least 272 votes.

Here’s what different exit polls have predicted

The Indian election, the largest democratic polling event in the world, began on April 19 and took place over the previous six weeks in seven phases, involving almost a billion eligible voters. The lower house’s 543 contested seats will allow the party or alliance with at least 272 votes to establish the government.

 India has made tremendous economic progress and improved its international standing during Modi’s ten years in office. India, a country of 1.4 billion people, boasts one of the fastest-growing economies globally, with its economy growing by 7.2% in the fiscal year 2022–2023, ranking second among G20 nations. The International Monetary Fund predicts that India’s economy will grow by 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, in contrast to China’s projected growth of 4.5% in 2025 and 5% in 2024.

Even more upbeat economists exist. “I think it is possible to achieve 7%–7.5% growth,” stated Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers chief economist Sujan Hajra to the news media. “The larger you grow, the more difficult it becomes to sustain a very high level of growth.” In order to spur growth, he continued, upgrading infrastructure will be a top priority. Hajra stated, “We have already done a lot of work on the hard infrastructure, so this time around, we will significantly emphasize soft infrastructure—like strengthening the nation’s health care system.”

As per the BJP’s plan for the forthcoming term, Modi promised that his administration will make India one of the top three economies globally, combat poverty head-on, create new economic opportunities, and take on corruption.

Analysts think that Modi’s assurance that the BJP and the larger National Democratic Alliance would win 400 seats is less significant as long as he stays near the 303 seats he won in 2019. This was reportedly stated by Modi in March. “We’ve seen the kind of progress and efficiency that he’s been able to bring from a governance perspective since 2019 with 303 seats, so it will still be a very positive outlook for the Indian equity market,” said Malcolm Dorson, Global X ETFs’ senior portfolio manager and head of emerging markets strategy.

Here are the poll results in some of the most talked-about states in India:

India Today-Axis My India poll study has predicted a massive gain for the BJP in Karnataka, a state it lost to the Congress just a few months back. Meanwhile, the India TV-CNX poll indicates that the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP and the NDA are likely to sweep the Andhra Pradesh polls.

The BJP may win big in Delhi this time. The party has been winning all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi for the past two elections. This time too, the BJP may win all seven seats. Today’s Chanakya predicted 6 ± 1 seats for the BJP.

The BJP is likely to make its Lok Sabha debut in Tamil Nadu by winning one to three Lok Sabha seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll.

As per India TV-CNX, the NDA is likely to sweep Andhra Pradesh, and the BJP may lead in Telangana.

Axis My India exit polls showed that the BJP may open its account in Kerala, the state where it didn’t win a single seat.

• Congress: 13-14 seats
• BJP: 2-3 seats
• UDF: 4 seats

As per India Today-Axis My India polls in Karnataka:

• BJP: likely to win 20-22 seats
• JDS: 2-3 seats
• Congress: 3-5 seats

This indicates a gain for the BJP as it had lost the Karnataka Assembly polls in 2023. The Congress had won the 2023 assembly polls.

Tamil Nadu has a total of 39 Lok Sabha seats, and the polling for Lok Sabha elections was done on 19 April. In Tamil Nadu, here’s what parties are likely to win as per India Today-Axis My India poll:

• BJP: 1-3 seats
• DMK: 20-22 seats
• Congress: 6-8 seats
• AIADMK: 2-3 seats

With only three days remaining for the final phase of Lok Sabha elections, campaigning has reached its peak. This phase will see voting for 57 Parliamentary Constituencies across seven states and a Union Territory on June 1.In this phase, there are 904 candidates competing in total.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a senior leader of the BJP, addressed a public meeting in North 24 Parganas district in support of the Barasat and Basirhat Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal. During his speech, Modi emphasized his administration’s zero tolerance for corruption.

Modi criticized the Congress and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, claiming they do not prioritize the common people and are only self-serving. He mentioned that citizenship is being granted to the Matua community in West Bengal under the CAA and highlighted the empowerment of women under his government. Additionally, Modi conducted a roadshow in Kolkata.

Earlier, at a public rally at Dumka Airport Ground in Jharkhand, PM Modi vowed to intensify actions against corrupt individuals after June 4.

In Bihar, JD(U) President and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar addressed a rally in the Nalanda constituency in Asthawan. Meanwhile, BJP leader and Union Minister Nityanand Rai held a public meeting in Barun, part of the Karakat parliamentary constituency.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad, speaking to the media in Patna, framed the Lok Sabha elections as a battle to protect reservation and the Indian Constitution. He expressed skepticism about the BJP’s claim of securing over 400 seats. RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav also campaigned, addressing a public meeting in Buxar.

In Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath supported BJP candidate Ravi Kishan during his campaign. At a rally in Kampilganj, Adityanath highlighted the BJP government’s achievements in supporting the poor and downtrodden.

Simultaneously, Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi jointly addressed rallies in the Mohan Sarai area of Varanasi and the Bansgaon Lok Sabha constituency.

In Himachal Pradesh, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi accused the BJP government of failing to address inflation and unemployment during an election rally in Gagret, Una district. She criticized the central government for not declaring last year’s calamity a national disaster. Senior Congress leader and Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, along with other leaders, also spoke at the rally.

Conversely, BJP National President JP Nadda held rallies in Chholtu in Kinnaur district, as well as in Nankhari and Rohru in Shimla district. Nadda asserted that the BJP seeks votes to continue the country’s development and progress. He praised Prime Minister Modi for invigorating the nation over the past decade and launching numerous welfare schemes. He specifically mentioned the Ayushman Bharat health program, which provides free treatment up to 6,000 US dollars.

The primary concern in the Indian equity markets right now revolves around the outcome of the ongoing elections for the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament. Key questions include how many seats the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will secure, how many its allies will win, and whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party will maintain its majority in Parliament. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 303 seats on its own, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which it leads, securing a total of 352 out of 543 seats.

Despite a general consensus predicting that Modi will secure a third consecutive term as Prime Minister, there remains uncertainty about the margin of victory. This uncertainty has caused some anxiety in the markets, with concerns that a potential shift in power could lead to changes in policy.

Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman of the Motilal Oswal Group, a Mumbai-based financial services firm, is confident that the BJP will win with a comfortable majority, possibly exceeding their 2019 seat count. He noted that betting markets, known for their independence, predict the BJP will win around 310 seats on its own. Agrawal shared his insights in an interview with CNBC-TV18, suggesting that market participants have a clear expectation of the election outcome based on current discussions.

The polling, which began on April 19, has completed six out of seven phases, with the final phase scheduled for June 1 and results to be announced on June 4. Exit polls, derived from voter surveys at polling booths, will be released on June 1 by the conducting organizations. Agrawal mentioned that political insiders are likely already aware of the exit poll trends, as they receive ongoing updates throughout the polling process.

Market expectations tied to the election results include predictions such as JPMorgan’s, which forecasted that the Nifty50 index could reach 25,000 if Modi’s BJP secures a third term. Hiren Ved, Director and Chief Investment Officer at Alchemy Capital Management, expressed that the specific number of seats won by the BJP is less important than the continuation of their current policies. Richard Harris, Chief Executive at Port Shelter Investment Management, also anticipates a third term for Modi, stating that a change in government would be a market upset, given that governments typically maintain their course in a third term unless under significant stress, which the current administration is not.

Psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav is the latest poll analyst, following American expert Ian Bremmer and political scientist Prashant Kishor, to forecast a victory for the BJP in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Yadav, however, anticipates that the BJP will not be able to replicate its 2019 success when it won 303 seats. He predicts the party will secure around 240-260 seats, with their NDA allies winning approximately 35-45 seats.

Yadav also expects the Congress party to improve its performance, increasing its tally from 52 seats in 2019 to somewhere between 85 and 100 seats.

In a tweet, Yadav dismissed the BJP’s claim of potentially winning over 400 seats, stating, “forget 400 or 303, BJP will not cross 272. If the wind blows more strongly, it is possible that even NDA may not get majority.” He has reiterated in several interviews that the BJP might not reach the 272-seat majority mark this time.

Prashant Kishor has endorsed Yadav’s analysis, acknowledging Yadav as a “trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country.” Kishor noted that according to Yadav, the BJP might win 240-260 seats, and with the NDA allies securing 35-45 seats, the total would be 275-305 seats. Kishor added that 272 seats are required to form a government, and the BJP/NDA currently holds 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha, with the Shiv Sena’s 18 seats no longer part of the NDA.

Kishor, in a tweet, suggested that people judge for themselves which party will form the government and noted that the results will be clear on June 4. However, it should be noted that both Yadav and Kishor have not provided detailed data to support their predictions.

In a recent NDTV interview, Kishor highlighted that two factors necessary to unseat a government—widespread voter anger or a strong demand for a new government—are not evident, suggesting that the BJP is likely to remain in power.

American political scientist Ian Bremmer has similarly forecasted that the BJP will secure 305±10 seats. Bremmer told NDTV that there would be minimal change from the previous election, attributing the expected victory to India’s strong economic performance and consistent reforms under Modi, which he described as a stabilizing factor.

During the first four phases of the 2024 general elections, voter turnout significantly increased compared to the 2019 elections. According to data from the Election Commission, 451 million voters participated in 2024, compared to 426 million in 2019, reflecting an increase of 25 million voters.

A domestic brokerage firm, SBI Research, analyzed this data, excluding postal and army ballots, and found an overall increase of 19 million voters. Within this increase, female voters rose by 9.36 million, while male voters increased by 8.47 million, highlighting the growing importance of women in Indian politics. This translates to approximately 110 female voters for every additional 100 male voters.

SBI Research undertook this analysis based on the belief that while voter turnout ratio is a common measure of public engagement, it is not always the most accurate indicator. They cautioned that comparing voter turnout ratios across different phases or elections could lead to misleading interpretations. Therefore, they calculated the absolute number of voters in each constituency during the 2019 and 2024 elections using data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) and voter turnout ratios.

The brokerage noted that over the last three elections (2014, 2019, and 2024), the average incremental voter turnout has been substantial, at 80 million. This is a notable increase from the average incremental voter turnout of 20 million for the 15 elections held before 2014.

The report highlighted that Karnataka experienced the highest increase in voter numbers in 2024, adding 3.55 million voters, with female voters accounting for 2.06 million (58% of the increase). Telangana also saw a significant rise, with an increase of 3.19 million voters compared to 2019.

Conversely, Kerala saw the largest decline in voter numbers in 2024, with a decrease of 0.53 million, followed by Manipur with a decline of 0.34 million voters.

So far, polling has progressed through four phases, covering 381 constituencies, which is 70% of the total constituencies. By the end of the fifth phase on May 20th, it is projected that around 80% of India’s population will have voted. The cumulative voter turnout for the four completed phases stands at 66.95%.

SBI Research’s analysis, based on current trends, predicts that overall voter turnout for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections will be around 67.5%, close to the 67.7% turnout in the 2019 elections. This projection is based on an estimated 650 million voters out of 960 million registered electors.

The fifth phase of voting in India’s seven-phase election ends today, with the remaining two phases scheduled for May 25 and June 1. The election will conclude with the counting of votes on June 4.

This election is a critical contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by the Indian National Congress party.